Thursday, April 26, 2007

First Debate of the Season

So how did everyone do? The debate itself was very tame. There were very, very few outward personal attacks on anyone, but there were subliminal attacks left and right.

For one, Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel made attacks on the other 6 candidates left and right in regards to the war. I wouldnt put too much stock in it since both poll 2% or lower. Their roles are to bring the parties more to the left, but they werent very successful.

Barack Obama - Started off very slowly. He wasnt answering as eloquently as he has spoken in the past. Overall he did a good job. I would say his biggest problem was with his spat with Kucinich and Gravel. I think that showed his inexperience. He took their comments too personally and got stuck in a little tiff with the others. Other than that he did a very good job.

Bill Richardson- I didnt like his debating skills at all. He was overly verbose and took up way too much time. I know he was trying to show that he is very experienced, but I feel he couldnt do it quickly and authoritatively. He lost people every single answer because he would say "I have two things" and then it would go on for ages. But it could have been because it was his first time to really get his message across. Obama and Hillary clearly have more media attention, followed by Edwards, all of the others are stuck.

Chris Dodd- I enjoyed listening to Chris Dodd, but I dont think the debate helped him much. He wont break into the top tier with this debate. He does have potential. He's very bright.

Joe Biden - Yes.
That was classic. Very good sense of humor, but I dont think he distinguished himself.

Hillary Clinton - I was ecstatic that she did so well. Every answer she gave was very clear, and she put a lot of pressure on the Bush administration. What was especially interesting was when she was asked about Virginia Tech. I thought she might shed a tear. She seemed very sincere. Its also the only time she mentioned former President Bill Clinton and it was not in connection to his service, but on their trip to Columbine after the shooting there. Very smart move. I think she did the best, I might be prejudiced in my opinion because I am a Hillary supporter, but what really was great is that she did not disappoint me AT ALL.

John Edwards - John Edwards has come an amazingly long way since the last election. If his goal was to show he isnt the "inexperienced guy" he did just that and passed the buck to Obama. Now Obama has to overcome that title, an uphill battle if he performs like this in every debate. But back to John Edwards, one of those "secret jabs" came when talking about his plan for healthcare. His jab was aimed at Hillary Clinton. He simply stated that something to the effect that all the candidates are talking about their plans for this and for that but dont have very detailed plans about how to get to them. He then stated his plan on healthcare. It is developed, but very narrow and doesnt leave much room for other possibilities. I guess my job in pointing it out is just as candid as his jab, but trust me it was there.

Dennis Kucinich - Unfortunately for Kucinich, his fire was stolen from him by Mike Gravel. Kucinich is one of the most liberal people in the running. His goal was to separate his stance on the war from the other candidates (and Iran). This was in response to an answer by Obama. Kucinich was allowed to rebut him, and after Obama counter rebutted (lol) Mike Gravel got in. If Kucinich could have gotten in before Gravel, it would have greatly helped him. But since he didnt, it only slightly helped him. This in effect, hurt Obama as well.

Mike Gravel - Now when I saw the earnings after the first quarter of fundraising and saw that Gravel had less than 500 dollars, I was pretty confused as to why he was still in. But after tonight, I have new respect for the elderly statesman. He used to be the US Senator from Alaska. He was instrumental in getting the US out of Vietnam, and the spectre of Iraq has reawakened old Mike. He is a spirited figure with a seriousness in his mind, but unfortunately, it comes off as humorous.

My predictions:
Clinton will pull ahead in polls after todays debate (This does not take into account the Pew poll released tonight which has her with an effective lead).
Obama will drop one or two percent
Edwards will jump a few points
Dodd, Richardson, Biden - stay about the same
Kucinich - might increase but not more than 1% *basically he will statistically stay the same
Gravel - statistically, he will be an asterisk, but he might have taken some steam off of Kucinich.

signing off, i have work to do!

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